Where the trend lines land in 2030
Each indicator’s historical series is extrapolated to 2030 with a linear model and a 95% prediction band, then compared against its Vision 2030 target. On current trajectory, 2 of 3 fitted indicators reach their target; the rest are two-point trajectories shown without a real prediction interval. These are extrapolated scenarios, not official forecasts.
Life expectancy at birth
On trackTarget 80yrs · gap +2.15yrs
fit R²=0.919 · 0.85%/yr
Diabetes prevalence
Off trackTarget 15% · gap +9.92%
fit R²=0.995 · 1.34%/yr
Hospital beds per 1,000
2-pt trajectoryTarget 2.5 · gap -0.12
2-pt trajectory · 0.56%/yr
Physicians per 1,000
2-pt trajectoryTarget 3 · gap +0.09
2-pt trajectory · 2.32%/yr
Health-sector Saudization
2-pt trajectoryTarget 40% · gap +7%
2-pt trajectory · 7.94%/yr
Private share of health spend
On trackTarget 35% · gap +6.9%
fit R²=0.982 · 3.32%/yr
Life expectancy at birth
reaches target2019–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 0.604/yr · R²=0.919
Projects the World Bank series shown on the homepage. The official Vision series (76.8 in 2024) tracks lower and is what the Race-to-2030 progress bar measures — see Methodology.
Diabetes prevalence
misses target2015–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 0.289/yr · R²=0.995
IDF age-standardised series is rising, projecting away from the 15% target — a divergence from the official Vision tracker (which reports 17.4% and falling) that warrants scrutiny.
Hospital beds per 1,000
trajectory only2016–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 0.012/yr · 2-pt linear
Two-point trajectory from the Vision baseline (2.2 in 2016) to current (2.3 in 2024); the full annual bed-density series is not yet published for every year.
Physicians per 1,000
trajectory only2016–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 0.058/yr · 2-pt linear
Projects the official Vision series (2.28 in 2016 → 2.74 in 2024) against its 3.0 target. The World Bank registered-physician figure (3.41) already exceeds 3.0 on its broader definition — both are correct; see Methodology.
Health-sector Saudization
trajectory only2016–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 2/yr · 2-pt linear
Projects the Vision-defined saudization series (19% in 2016 → 35% in 2024). A broader all-roles health-sector saudization measure runs higher (~54%); this tracks the metric the 40% target is set against.
Private share of health spend
reaches target2016–2024 actual, projected to 2030 · slope 1.03/yr · R²=0.982
Method: ordinary least-squares regression on the historical series; the band is a 95% prediction interval using the degrees-of-freedom-correct t multiplier (so small-n series get appropriately wide bands), widening with distance from the data. Two-point series are shown as bare trajectories with no interval. Read these as scenarios. See the methodology for how the underlying series are sourced and reconciled.
Disclaimer
This platform is an independent, non-commercial data visualization project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or produced by the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia, the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), or any other government body or institution.
All data presented is sourced exclusively from publicly available official publications, including MOH Statistical Yearbooks, GASTAT health statistics reports, World Bank Open Data, and WHO Global Health Observatory. Statistical figures are reproduced as-is for informational and educational purposes. No personal, patient, or individually identifiable data is collected, stored, or displayed.
While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the data may not reflect the most recent figures. Users should refer to the original source publications for authoritative and up-to-date statistics. This platform does not constitute medical, financial, or policy advice.
Data sources: MOH · GASTAT · World Bank · WHO · Last aggregated: May 2026